Thanks, yeah, maybe I am just being pessimistic right now...

Misterhotdog, I mistakenly deleted my post. What I wanted to say is:

I would suggest the following; Safe school = 91% and above. Target (core) school = 71% to 90%. Reach schoole = 45% to 70%. Below 45% whatever you want to call it.

Please note Parchment data shows a significant number of applicants with predictions below 45% have been accepted in the past - so don't rule out this option entirely. Not getting into Big Reach schools is a disappointment but, not overly depressing since the expectation is low. The important thing is categorizing schools to avoid false expectations.